Інтегральна оцінка фінансово-економічного потенціалу підприємства на основі нечітких уявлень

Abstract

The paper identifies that when assessing strategic planning issues, there is a problem of capacity assessment. One of the most significant components of potential is economic potential. Studies of the components of economic potential allow us to formulate the main directions of its evaluation: financial results, financial sustainability; solvency. Also, when assessing economic potential, it is necessary to consider the technical and economic indicators that allow to specify the evaluation of the efficiency of use of different types of resources and reflect the enterprise's overall ability to carry out production and economic activities. Obviously, the economic potential of the enterprise is a multifactorial structure. Therefore, its estimation is possible only on the basis of construction of a single integral indicator. Most suggestions for constructing such an indicator are based on discriminant analysis methods and other statistical and probabilistic methods. But there are a number of reasons that limit the possibility of using classical probabilistic methods in such studies, including the lack of reliable statistics. One of the solutions to the problem in the paper is the possibility of constructing an integral exponent based on the provisions of fuzzy set theory. This theory examines models that reflect the degree of subjective confidence of the expert in his or her own right. That is, a formally described boundary separating confidence from uncertainty is used. Such models are a synthesis of objective and subjective models. The proposed approach allows to determine the degree of satisfaction of indicators and to establish a logical connection of quantitative values of indicators of estimation of the level of economic potential of the enterprise. That is, the expert can make an economic interpretation of the nuances of the situation. The researches made it possible to construct a classification of the current value of the indicator of the level of economic potential as a criterion for splitting the set into fuzzy subsets and to offer examples of classification of the values most used in the financial and economic analysis of the indicators. It is pointed out that in practical application a simplified variant of economic potential estimation is possible based on a fuzzy-multiple approach and an algorithm of a simplified variant of estimation is provided. On the basis of the given estimation algorithms on an example of the operating enterprise the estimation of change of the level of economic potential for two years is made. The necessary explanations regarding the options for classifying the current values of the indicators are provided. It is proved that, in the general case, expert estimates can be represented as fuzzy sets, which makes it possible to choose the best alternative under the worst conditions by fuzzy set theory methods.